Recently, PTA's spot price and futures price have jumped sharply. On July 11, PTA futures prices quickly rose to the daily limit, which led to the beginning of this round of rising.
First, the overall improvement of the industry is the background of this round of price increases
In 2012-2014, domestic PTA capacity expanded rapidly, and PTA capacity expanded rapidly from 20 million tons to 43 million tons in three years. Overcapacity has resulted in a plant operating rate of less than 70% in the PTA industry in 2013-2014. After that, the PTA industry began structural reforms on the supply side, with a total production capacity of 11.35 million tons. The current effective production capacity is about 37 million tons. The industry operating rate is around 84%, and the economy continues to improve. From this year's situation, the industry has continued to destock since April. By the end of June, the social inventory of PTA has dropped to 1.3 million tons, and the social consumption has been less than half a month (the bottom line inventory of production security is 90). 10,000 tons), the inventory level is already very low.
Second, supply tension is the main reason for this round of price increases
The PTA giant Hengli Petrochemical's No. 1 2.2 million tons device was parked on June 23, and the factory originally planned to park for about 12 days. On the evening of July 10, Hengli Petrochemical announced that the PTA unit had to delay driving due to compressor problems, which may be delayed by 1-2 months. If the capacity is roughly calculated, it will affect the market's 180,000-200,000 tons of PTA supply per month, accounting for 7%-7.5% of the current market supply. In terms of import and export, China's PTA imports in May were about 27,100 tons, down 1.31% from the previous month and down 26.51% year-on-year, further causing tight market supply.
Third, the downstream demand exceeds the expected growth is a booster
Historically, from 2008 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of polyester-polyester was about 7.7%. Among them, the growth rate of consumption in 2016 was 4%. In the first six months of this year, the growth rate of polyester production was about 9.8%, and the demand for upstream PTA far exceeded expectations. Recently, the inventory of polyester and polyester products has dropped from the high point in May. At present, the mainstream stock of polyester filament yarn is 4-8 days, and the stock of polyester chips is only 4-5 days, all falling to the low point of the same period in history. From the perspective of the terminal fabric market, the weaving manufacturers have a good order status and high enthusiasm for start-up. Recently, environmental protection has continued to make some regular fabric sales continue to be popular, and some orders are released in advance. In the past more than a month, the production and sales of mainstream polyester filament yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have remained at over 100 levels for most of the time. We expect that the stock of polyester filament yarn will continue to decline in the future, and demand is expected to continue to exceed expectations.
The situation in the fourth and third quarters is optimistic
PTA installations are usually overhauled 1-2 times a year, and there are still 12.6 million tons of unrepaired capacity. According to the annual maintenance estimate, the routine maintenance of these units will affect the supply of 530,000 tons in the following period. If these devices do not take the initiative to repair, the hot weather in summer is prone to accidental failure, and the accidental failure of the constant force device is a good example. On the Other hand, the environmental inspection team is expected to enter Zhejiang in late July, or it will have potential impact on PTA production in the area. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the supply of PTA industry will remain tight in the third quarter, and the price continues to rise is worth looking forward to.
It is recommended to pay attention to Rongsheng Petrochemical 002493, Diagnostics , Hengyi Petrochemical 000703, Diagnostics , Tongkun 601233, and Diagnostics (600346). From the perspective of flexibility, for every 100 yuan/ton increase in PTA price, the earnings per share of the three companies increased by 0.1 yuan, 0.24 yuan and 0.09 yuan respectively.
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