Yellen pointed out that the US economy is performing quite well, the labor market is generally strong, and the salary growth rate has also been boosted. In addition, the inflation rate in the United States has risen from a low level, although inflation is below the 2% target, it is very close. Yellen also said that there will be no major obstacles to the economy in the short term. Long-term obstacles include issues such as productivity and imbalances. The Fed is working hard to ensure that the job market remains strong.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday (January 12), the number of jobless claims in the US on January 7 was better than expected. It has been below 300,000 for 97 consecutive weeks; potential trends indicate that the current labor market is Tightening and starting to boost salary growth is further accelerated. US Labor Department analysts said that last week's data statistics included the New Year holiday, considering that it will be affected by the holiday factors, it is expected that the data trend will appear to a certain degree of fluctuation at the beginning of this year. We believe that although the US non-farm payrolls data showed a slight decline in December, the salary growth rate was the best in 7 years, and the number of initial jobless claims also performed well, indicating that the US labor market is still healthy.
In European time, investors focus on Germany's wholesale price index data, and the market trend is more inclined to the direction given by technology. During the New York time, the market ushered in a series of important US data tests, including the US PPI, retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, which have always been able to bring greater volatility to the US dollar.
Financial calendar
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15:00 German December wholesale price index monthly rate (%)
21:30 US December PPI annual rate (%)
21:30 US retail sales monthly rate in December (%)
23:00 US November commercial inventory monthly rate (%)
23:00 US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value in January
23:30 US leading index for ECRI as of January 6
Major currency reminder
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EUR/USD EURUSD
A Reuters poll released on Thursday (January 12) shows that the recent optimistic view that the euro zone's economic growth and inflation situation has finally improved is facing a test; and only a few countries have no major accidents this year. Strike, that view can be maintained. The euro zone's economic growth in the third quarter of last year was 0.3%, the same as in the second quarter. All member economies have expanded, even in non-core countries such as Greece. But there are signs that growth has increased since then. For example, industrial production in the Eurozone jumped in November, and Germany had the fastest economic growth in five years at the end of last year. However, Reuters survey of more than 65 economic analysts this week showed that analysts' estimates of growth and inflation were basically unchanged from the previous survey. The respondents said that after the British referendum resigned and Trump was elected president of the United States The uncertainty caused by the rise of the protectionist mentality. EUR/USD within the day: There is pressure. A break below the 1.0600 level will trigger a fall to 1.0570. Pressure level: 1.0685-1.0630, support level: 1.0600-1.0540.
GBP/USD GBPUSD
On Friday (January 13th), the Asian market in the end of the Asian market, the pound against the US dollar to cover most of the day's decline, the current exchange rate trading around 1.2165, down about 0.03%. The biggest drop in the day was nearly 0.3%. Goldman Sachs believes that if the British government starts the "hard Brexit" process, the pound will also have a 20%-40% decline, and it is entirely possible to touch the 1.10 integer mark. During European time, the Bank of England will publish a report on the credit status. In addition, Mr. Sanders, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, will also deliver a speech. GBP/USD within the day: There is pressure. As long as there is still a resistance level of 1.2185, it is expected to return to 1.2135. Pressure level: 1.2245-1.2185, support level: 1.2135-1.2050.
USD/JPY USDJPY
On Friday (January 13th), during the Asian market, the US dollar against the yen oscillated in a narrow range and then retreated some of the gains. Now trading at 115.02. The transaction triggered by the implementation of the fiscal stimulus policy after the Trump administration took office continued to unfold. As the US bond yields were further adjusted, the US dollar fell. The Mexican peso was under pressure, and Trump explicitly advocated the construction of the border wall and claimed to have removed the North American Free Trade Agreement. But on the whole, the dollar has also retraced. The yen is more sensitive to fluctuations in US bond yields. Trump held his first press conference in New York and did not provide effective guidance to promote economic growth, which made the dollar bulls disappointed. On the contrary, this caused the USD/JPY to fall to around 114. Japanese investors have started regular seasonal cash repatriation, and Japan has recorded current account surpluses and trade surpluses, which may seriously drag USD/JPY around 116. USD/JPY within the day: Uptrend. From a technical point of view, the RSI technical indicator is above the 50% neutral zone. Pressure level: 116.05-115.25, support level: 114.50-113.85.
AUD/USD AUDUSD
At 10:00 Beijing time on Friday (January 13th), China Customs announced 2016 annual trade account data, and the trade situation improved in the fourth quarter. However, the Australian dollar did not receive a boost against the US dollar. Both Australia and China are actively promoting economic restructuring. Australia is trying to get rid of its dependence on the mining industry. China is actively increasing the proportion of consumption in driving economic growth. Therefore, under the previously published Australian consumer data performance is not good, China's import growth in 2016 is not significant, and the multiple effects of falling exports, the Australian dollar exchange rate seems to be a natural reason. AUD/USD on the day: Above 0.7470, bullish. A support bottom is formed around 0.7470, which will bring stability to the trend in the short term. Pressure level: 0.7545-0.7500, support level: 0.7470-0.7430.
USD/CAD USDCA D
On Thursday (January 12), the US dollar rebounded against the Canadian dollar. The exchange rate was trading near 1.315. At the press conference on Thursday, Trump did not mention Canada’s important trading partner, Canada, one of the parties to the North American Free Trade Agreement. In the context of the current central bank's monetary policy differentiation and the uncertainty of US economic policies, including the resumption of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the implementation of trade restrictions, the Canadian economy will continue to adjust to the oil price shock. USD/CAD within the day: The target is 1.3170. Above 1.3120, for a multi-head signal, the upward target bit is 1.3170. Pressure level: 1.3215-1.3170, support level: 1.3120-1.3070.
NZD/USD NZDUSD
On Friday (January 13th) Asian plate, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar fell back to measure the downward trend pressure line on the previous trading day (November 8 high and December 15 high), near 0.7090 Support is effective. China's December import rate (dollar-denominated) actually recorded 3.10%, better than the expected increase of 3%, but less than the 4.70% increase in the previous period, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar reaction was flat. China is New Zealand's largest trading partner, mainly importing food from New Zealand. NZD/USD on the day: The short-term key resistance is at 0.7125. The rising space may be limited by the 0.7125 resistance level. Pressure level: 0.7175-0.7125, support level: 0.7085-0.7035.
Spot gold GOLD
On Friday (January 13th), the Asian spot gold price slightly rose after a slight decline. After the shock fell, it recovered some of the decline and failed to stand at the 1200 mark. It is now trading at around $1,193. The market is not only concerned about terrorism and the Middle East conflict, but also about the potential trade conflicts and the global tensions. France's far-right presidential candidate Le Pen once said that if he wins the election, he hopes to bring France out of the euro zone and re-calculate the French government debt in the new national currency. Le Pen is a popular candidate for the French presidential election. Within the gold day: The short-term key resistance is at 1197.00. Even if we can't rule out the possibility of a sustained technical rebound, its length of time should be limited. Pressure level: 1203.00-1197.00, support level: 1191.00-1182.50.
NYMEX crude oil OIL
On Friday (January 13), at the beginning of the crude oil market, the oil price continued its overnight gain and continued to rise. US oil traded around US$53.09/barrel, an increase of about 0.15%; oil oil traded around US$56.07/barrel, an increase of about 0.04%. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other oil-producing countries actively promoted the reduction of production. The Secretary of the OPEC issued an optimistic speech, the dollar fell under pressure, and the expected strong growth of China's crude oil demand, all of which boosted oil prices to some extent. Crude Oil (WTI) (G7) Intraday: Bullish. A support bottom is formed near 52.80, which will bring stability to the trend in the short term. Pressure level: 54.30-53.50, support level: 52.80-52.10.
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