This article is a speech by George McCarthy, Dean of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, at the China Urban Development and Land Policy Symposium and the 10th Anniversary Celebration of Peking University-Lincoln Center
My topic is "From Henry Road George to Jenny Road Accord Booth: Planning and Financing the New City Agenda."
I am very happy to participate in the celebration of the Lincoln Center, and I am especially grateful to the staff of Peking University Center for the preparations for the 10th anniversary celebration. There are a lot of activities in the follow-up, which means thanking the employees.
I will discuss a 120-year history for you, maybe I will finish it in 25 minutes. This story was planted ten years ago, and the Peking University Center became a towering tree. For Lincoln, just like a tour guide in Xi'an a few days ago, the tour guide told me that Xi'an is the root of China's culture, Beijing is the branch of the tree, and Shanghai is the leaf. At Lincoln College, for the Lincoln Institute, the Lincoln Center in Peking University is like our roots. Latin America and Africa have developed branches. Last year, we also saw the World Bank and the United Nations and other international institutions. Get recognized, this is when we bloom.
The development of the next decade. Before we talked about the achievements of the previous decade, Peking University Lincoln Center can be said to be a very good channel to bring international experts to China to help China learn from other countries' experiences and develop new land policies. The challenge is that you have learned these experiences and the experience you have accumulated, and can help us contribute to issues such as urbanization and equality in the world.
I will discuss the third session of the Tenth Habitat Conference held a year ago, and also explore the urbanization, especially the past experience of China in the past 20 years. The World Habitat Conference is actually held every 20 years. It is convened by the United Nations. He is making some arrangements for the next 20 years of human settlements.
The first was held in Vancouver in 1976, in Istanbul in 1996, and last year in Ecuador in 2016. In fact, I hope to set an urbanization agenda here, the goal that the city has to achieve in this regard. What is the corresponding relationship between people and cities? What is the whole city like? What kind of interaction between people and cities deals with issues like urban poverty and the environment. It can be said that it is a very ambitious agenda for the next 20 years. If you want to achieve this new urbanization agenda, you must get help from everyone, including China's urban experience that can help us demonstrate the environment and high resilience.
The main part of the new urbanization agenda is two mutually reinforcing relationships. On the one hand, it is the driving force for development. The national policy can have a corresponding resource investment infrastructure to provide a high quality of life. Another point is that there is also a corresponding need to develop economic resources in this area. In addition, how to have a high-quality investment can be promoted from an operational perspective. In the agenda of the new town, I hope that these two motivating factors can be combined to achieve higher quality urbanization. In the next 20 years, there will be a new 2 billion people living in cities, which means 1.5 times the population of China. There are many people who move from rural to urban areas and need a lot of investment to make these cities livable.
The biggest challenge, financing for the urbanization agenda is infrastructure. Such infrastructure challenges require $91 trillion or $550 trillion in investment over the next 20 years, at the global level. Or, the annual investment in infrastructure needs to reach 4-5 trillion US dollars, or 20-30 trillion yuan, to meet the needs of new residents. Everyone has heard the development of sponge cities and climate-adaptive types. In fact, Every year, $1 trillion or 6 trillion yuan is needed for climate-adapted infrastructure. Money has always been? Let me introduce you to a background. What is the level of 91 trillion compared to global GDP? What is the annual GDP value of all goods and services in the world? In fact, there are only 73 trillion US dollars or 425 trillion yuan. For the demand for infrastructure, we need 91 trillion yuan, that is, 550 trillion yuan. Global 7-8% of GDP must be invested in these infrastructures to meet the needs of new citizens and new citizens. This is a global perspective. Of course, the overall local fiscal revenue of local governments around the world is only about 5% of GDP. We must be able to double the fiscal revenue of the global city, and then we have such funds to invest.
Urbanization quality: Urbanization is very important. As you can see in the world, there are some places that are rural or some are cities. We have seen that in these two processes, absolute poverty has been reduced through urbanization. Second, we have further increased the inequality of income and wealth, because there is wealth gathering and concentration in the city. Inequality is actually related to the quality of urbanization. In the 19th century, there was a very famous philosophy. Home and social reformer Henry Road George proposed that Henry Road George lived during the industrial revolution and he was also amazed at the creation of a large number of industrial assets and social wealth. He is also very confused at the same time, because he also sees a large amount of absolute poverty, which exists in American cities.
Why is it so much on the one hand, there are so many outputs, and the material wealth is created through the industrial revolution, but poverty cannot be eliminated? Henry Road George concluded that poverty is a problem of distribution because the spillover of economic growth is not fairly distributed, and landowners generally get the profits they can earn without hard work. The public sector has made a lot of investment, the demand has been rising steadily, the people have entered the city more, and the landowners have become very wealthy, but labor and capital do receive a lot of taxation, and the productive aspects are taxed, right? The productive non-productive part, that is to say the landowner does not tax, is wrong.
The value of land itself is not what he earns. Can we tax it? Use this money for public sector and government work? He mentioned solutions that can solve poverty while also promoting progress, better cities and better human life. Here is the Lincoln College, we hope to make good use of the value of the land, so that we can build a city that reduces poverty and inequality. At the Lincoln Institute, we believe that land is the key to solving the problem of global challenges, whether it is climate change and globalization, and the financing of cities. Now we can learn from China. I think we have to learn from China because China has also used the land transfer method to capture the land value in the past 20 years. We can see the city from China at the Peking University Center. It can be seen that the land transfer is 27 trillion yuan or 4.5 trillion yuan of land transfer fees, which can greatly meet the infrastructure needs. Of course, they provide 2.6 million hectares of land. China has a large urban-rural flow, and the city continues to expand and grow. Therefore, the land income they collect, the land transfer fee accounts for 50% of the local government's fiscal revenue, that is, Half of it comes from land transfer fees. What we often talk about all over the world is, where does the financing of urban infrastructure come from? The answer is that in the land, China has also proven that land can be the main source of infrastructure and urban expansion funds.
How is China developing? Through the expansion of the city, for example, there are four rings, five rings, six rings, the boundaries of the city continue to expand and expand to a larger geographical area. We have done a job for UN-HABITAT, various types of urbanization, one type of urbanization in the past 50 years, the most important is through expansionary growth, the same is true in the world, as well as in China. If there is to be high-quality growth, we need to increase through density, such as redevelopment or slum upgrading, which is a big challenge. We want both to be two-pronged in order to welcome the new 2 billion city population in the next 20 years. UN-HABITAT also helped them to do a research in the past 40 to 50 years in the city. We also published the "Analysis of Urban Expansion", which was released at the Third Habitat Conference. The expansion of the city in the past 30 years, the cities are still different, Chengdu and Los Angeles compared to the expansion of Chengdu is actually very huge. The average land area is about 11.82% growth, which is 0.74% of their annual urban land growth area in Los Angeles from 1988 to 2009, because Los Angeles is growing more by increasing its density rather than by expanding it.
In terms of population, population density is also very different. You can see pictures of the 1990s, 2000, and 2015 through satellite images. You can see satellite images to see the growth of the city, such as big coffee and Buenos Aires. Syelis, the growth of population density is also very different in each city.
What other land is not developed within the city? Compared with Bogota and Wuhan, the building area is only 56% of the city's area. In fact, 80% of the land within the Bogota city has been developed, and there is not much new land. Such a model can help us understand how the city should grow in the future, because we look back now and hope to look to the future. In the urban expansion atlas, I saw 200 cities. The speed of land expansion in these cities exceeded the speed of population expansion. The speed of population growth and the speed of land expansion were between 1 and 2.5%. The speed of land expansion was faster than the population. About 50% faster, the density of the city is declining, and it will not continue in the next 50 years, because we will have no land.
This is the 200,000 people in Gibeira next to Nairobi in the city. We live in such slums. It looks very dense. There are no high-rises just flat slums, and there are not too many roads and infrastructure.
Brazil's Rosinia also has 300,000 people living in such slums, and their services are very limited. Because on the hillside, when it rains, there will be some loss of water and soil, and there are 200,000 people living in such slums in Keya Sari in Cape Town, South Africa, Gibeira and Rosini and more famous. The slum areas are very similar. The big challenge for us is what to do in the existing places that have already been developed? How to continue to develop our city? In the future, 2 billion people will come to live in cities. Now there are 1 billion people living in such slums. It is not expected that 2 billion people will live in such conditions in the next 20 or 30 years.
In the future, urbanization China has already shown us that many cities in China also tell us that growth can be achieved through urban expansion, because land value capture can be used for financing, which is through expansion of land, and some cities are not planned. Habitat settlements, etc., we also need to deal with such problems, the problem of urban-rural integration. If you only want to expand, like Shenzhen, Shenzhen has no land, one side is the sea, the other side is Hong Kong, the other side is Guangzhou, there is no place for expansion, only the internal density can be improved.
There is also a big question about how to raise funds and raise funds. The history of redevelopment and redevelopment in the United States has been updated within the city. We have found some lessons. We have not found a more perfect way. We have to renovate the urban area. We need to learn from China. We only have a lot of places in China that need to grow and develop. We call it the village in the city.
In the United States, the actual government first launched such redevelopment or renovation work. At that time, a large project was launched, hoping to redevelop new urban areas, such as the slum area, and to migrate these slums first. Go out and develop again. In 1950, the city was renewed in 1950. In the Lincoln Institute next to Boston, in the West District of Boston, there were some slums before. It seems to be developing well, and the density of the city is further aggravated.
There was a lot of opposition, and the people said no, they could not be rebuilt here. The government still won, and the government gave the people compensation for the land and redeveloped it. At the western end of Boston, you can see that these people have been moved out. They built these high-rises, apartments, and government office centers.
It was decided in New York, New York to redevelop and renovate, in fact the largest railway station in New York, this is the original Pennsylvania train station. At that time, many people mobilized this work, and at the time they also made great appeals.
This is the situation after the transformation of the Pennsylvania station. This is the old building before, this is the new building, I prefer the old building. There was also a lot of exercise, but there were people in Boston who opposed it, but they still failed. In the 1960s, I hoped that I could make more redevelopments, build some corresponding networks, and find some more powerful people to become their alliances. For example, in Washington Square Park, they have to develop accordingly. It is also very good to promote this development. In fact, in Washington Square Park, they hope to restore their cultural history in the city. We now need to find a way to find the identity of the city, which is cultural protection and historical protection. Later, they found a way to find some social reflections. At that time, our first lady, Ms. Kennedy, was the former first lady. They had some payment work, and we were not allowed to redevelop and reform in our city. Our national government gives them support. They say yes. We will give you a so-called historical protection bill. They use such a bill here. Later, they have a tax cut method to help them who want to protect such a The law can achieve preferential measures for tax reduction. This is 40 years, a total investment of 120 billion, doing historical protection work, and then 530,000 sets of housing. It has been protected by 12 million jobs. This is also very good for the local government and the national government to make a lot of cooperation in this field in terms of cultural protection and historical protection. This is the new model, which is called adaptability and transformation. Transforming an old building can also be used and adopted in a modern way. Paul Dimo we at Harvard are good examples, we can see that the transatlantic 600558, attending stocks in Europe, but also with such use of the same in Germany, the original factory, now a modern office building. There are many experiences in internationalization. They find a lot of different ways to re-innovate internally, instead of spreading the pie. In São Paulo, the sale of construction rights financed 18 billion yuan to support infrastructure and housing. Part of Colombia’s plan is to support the transformation of the Vatican’s triangle in Bogotá, in Seoul, South Korea. More than 50 self-financing land adjustment policies have supported their land development and supported 500,000 family homes.
There is also Indonesia, where their land adjustments have also supported their re-engineering, especially in the later urban transformation in Indonesia after the earthquake. China is still facing many challenges in its transformation. In the past ten years, we have seen people still want to transform the city. For example, in the village of the city, they actually account for about 20% of the housing in the whole city. These farmers have lost their own farmland, but they are still in the center of the city, but they still keep their own land, so they are called the village. Their density and quality are generally lower and compare to other modern buildings in the city.
For example, like Shenzhen, they already have some private departments that communicate directly with the villages in the city. They jointly carry out redevelopment. We also visited Shenzhen. The problem now is that China can now give us a new model. ? In terms of urban transformation, what kind of experience does China have now, can you give us? After all, China has a lot of urban villages here. We have seen this in the United States for 100 years. In the field of international development, we have not seen much in the past 40 years. There may be a little bit of experience in São Paulo and South Korea. This is a project or several projects. The transformational work done did not see such a large scale, like the scope of China's re-engineering. At the national level, we have not seen any successful experiences from other countries. I am looking at China now.
Our center is indeed involved in a lot of work here, hoping to help find the city to rebuild, starting from the center, not to spread the pie, to find solutions to rebuild from the center, improve people's lifestyle and improve their living. The environment, I hope to provide some experience to other parts of the world.
In fact, the Lincoln Center now does not only bring international experience to China, but also hopes to bring it from the experience of China to the environment of international development.
I am very happy to be here, I hope I can learn a lot. Thank you!
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