Focus today
[LME copper stocks soared again] On February 8, LME copper stocks soared 21,125 tons, mainly in the warehouses of Busan, Klang and Rotterdam.
[ Analysis of China's unwrought copper and copper imports in January] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's unwrought copper and copper imports in January fell to 440,000 tons for two consecutive months, compared with 450,000 in December last year. The ton was reduced by 2.2%, but it was still much higher than the 2017 average of 391,000 tons, and increased by 15.8% from 380,000 tons in the same period last year. SMM believes that the import profit window is mostly closed and the operating rate of copper rod terminals is declining. The import of unwrought copper and copper in January fell slightly, while the reduction in scrap copper imports supported unwrought copper and copper. The import base remained at a relatively high level. "see details
[ Zijin Mining: Copper will increase the annual production capacity of cathode copper to 400,000 tons. ] Zijin Mining announced that the board of directors agreed to establish a project for the implementation of secondary tapping and efficiency improvement project of Zijin Copper Co., Ltd., with a total investment of RMB. After the completion of the transformation, the capacity of cathode copper will increase to 400,000 tons/year. "see details
[ Aluminum rod stocks | Profile enterprises have a special schedule to the library after the basic holiday is completed ] SMM data shows that aluminum rod stocks in major consumer regions of the country on February 8: 65,400 tons in Foshan, 11,900 tons in Wuxi, and 0.47 million tons in Changzhou. Huzhou has 0.6 million tons, Nanchang has 18,100 tons, and the five places have a total of 106,100 tons, a significant increase of 16,900 tons.
[ January Philippine Nickel Exports ] According to SMM research, the Philippines is expected to export about 830,000 wet tons of nickel ore in January, down from December. In January, the total amount of nickel exported from the Philippines was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 66% from the previous month.
[ Partial lithium hydroxide manufacturers plan to expand production in 2018 ] According to SMM, lithium hydroxide manufacturers in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other provinces and cities have plans to expand production in 2018.
[In January, China's iron ore import volume hit a record high ] In January, China imported 10,344,000 tons of iron ore, an increase of 16.2 million tons, an increase of 19.25%, an increase of 8.34 million tons, an increase of 9.07%, a record high. .
Metal and industry news
[ Most of the pre-baked anode stocks of aluminum plants are sufficient. In February, the pre-baked anodes will be priced after the Spring Festival. ] According to SMM, in addition to some habitually-priced aluminum plants at the beginning of the month, most aluminum plants currently have sufficient pre-baked anode stocks and low purchasing intentions. And most aluminum plants in accordance with the habits in the middle of the month to determine the pre-baked anode purchase price of the month, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the February pricing was postponed until after the Spring Festival. Referring to Weiqiao's February pricing, it is expected that the purchase price of pre-baked anodes of other aluminum plants will also fall by about 200.
[ In 2017, the output of electrolytic aluminum in Fujian Province was 140,600 tons ] According to the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in December 2017, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in Fujian was 41,800 tons, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year; the cumulative output from January to December was 462,100 tons, a year-on-year increase. 1.4%. According to statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in December was 12,100 tons, up 1.5% year-on-year; the cumulative output from January to December was 140,600 tons, up 13.4% year-on-year. "see details
[The outlook for silicon exporters is different ] Although there is still a gap between the current exporter's offer and the foreign merchant's acceptance price, it can be seen that the actual transaction level has a clear upward trend. The rise in silicon prices brought by exchange rate changes has gradually been bought by buyers. Accepted. There are different views on the exporters in the market, mainly based on the difference in the judgment of the exchange rate trend. Some believe that the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar will continue to rise, so the quotation of the forward order is higher than the spot order; while the other view is that the future exchange rate will be replied, so the forward order quotation is lower than the spot order.
[ Zhongtian Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. exceeded 10 million tons in 2017. ] In the past year, with the deepening of the national supply-side reform and the gradual recovery of demand for infrastructure and manufacturing, the steel market price has risen steadily. Seize the market opportunity, efficient and practical management, and completed 10.33 million tons of ironmaking, 10.36 million tons of steelmaking, and 10.35 million tons of rolled materials, achieving an operating income of 122 billion yuan and achieving “three million tonsâ€. A historic breakthrough, the best achievement since the establishment of the group.
[The cumulative profit of major medium-sized steel enterprises increased by 613.6% year-on-year ] It was learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that steel prices rose sharply in 2017 due to factors such as the overall ban on “strip steel†and the rebound in market demand. At the end of December, the Chinese steel price index was 121.8 points, up 22.3 points from the beginning of the year. In 2017, the key large and medium-sized enterprises realized a total profit of 177.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 613.6%.
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The US dollar fell slightly in the intraday trading session, and the British central bank's hawkish signal drove the euro higher to suppress the dollar, and the dollar's gains narrowed. However, the US dollar still stood above the 90 mark, benefiting from the rise in US bond yields, the overall decline of the euro, risk aversion and other factors boosted, currently oscillating around 90.2. Affected by China's data, the dollar's gains narrowed, and the decline in basic metals narrowed, and the trend fluctuated. Zinc was led by tight supply, with LME zinc rising more than 1%; Shanghai Huxi fell more than 1%. LME copper continued its four-week decline, hitting the lowest in eight weeks, mainly due to the surge in LME stocks. "see details
"Foreign Financial Data Preview: China's data to announce the basic metals or will continue to oscillate
[ Investment Banking ] Goldman Sachs said that strong economic growth in emerging markets and rebound in jewellery demand will support gold prices, raising the long-term price target for gold (by the end of 2020) by 14% to $1,550 per ounce, and will be three months and six respectively. Target prices for the month and twelve months are raised to $1,350 per ounce, $1,375 per ounce, and $1,450 per ounce.
[ Oil price ] Forties restarting the oil pipeline that is responsible for nearly 40% of oil and gas production in the North Sea region of the UK. Earlier, the United States announced that the average daily oil production last week exceeded 10 million barrels. On Thursday, oil fell below $65 and hit a new low this year. It closed down more than 8% from last month's high, and US oil almost wiped out the year-on-year gains.
[ Oil price ] US crude oil futures fell for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, falling to the lowest level in seven weeks, as Iran announced plans to increase production and US crude oil production hit a record, making investors worry about rising global supply.
Terminal information
[Automobile] by the Federation: In January, the generalized total passenger car sales 2,272,400, an increase of 7.1%; yield 2.3265 million, an increase of 12.8%; new energy vehicle sales reached 30,000 units, a relative of January 2017 The low base increased by more than four times.
[ New energy vehicles exempt from purchase tax ] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It is proposed to dynamically manage the new energy vehicles exempt from the purchase tax catalogue. For models that have not been produced until the date of publication of the Catalogue before January 1, 2017, the models that have not been produced within 12 months after the listing on January 1, 2017 and after, are publicly announced. After no working day, no objection, it will be revoked from the Catalogue.
[ Auto Market] According to Marklines, global electric vehicle sales in December 2017 were 161,300 units, up 61% year-on-year; in 2017, global electric passenger vehicle sales were 1,197,100, an increase of 67% year-on-year. In 2017, China's cumulative global sales volume ranked first, with 567,400 units completed, an increase of 88.1% year-on-year.
Macro focus
China:
General Administration of Customs: In January, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 2.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%; the trade surplus was 135.8 billion yuan, narrowing 59.7%.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release January price data on the 9th. Against the background of rising global inflation expectations, some market participants believe that China’s inflation expectations are rising this year. However, judging from various factors, China’s prices are expected to operate moderately this year, and inflationary pressures are not high. In addition, the pressure of PPI conduction to CPI is significantly reduced. Commodity prices are difficult to continue to rise sharply, and the import factor has weakened the PPI.
SAFE: China's current account surplus in the fourth quarter of 2017 was $62.2 billion, and the capital and financial account deficit was $62.2 billion. In 2017, the current account surplus was $172 billion, and the capital and financial account deficit was $9.1 billion.
Europe and America:
New York Fed President Dudley said that as the US economic growth continues to outpace this year, he will support another rate hike in March. He pointed out that there are too many supporting factors in the US economy better than expected, and the FOMC could not lack the reason for raising interest rates in March. He said that the current stock market decline is a "small potato" (not important) and does not affect the US economic outlook, but if the stock market encounters a sustained sell-off, it may begin to affect the economic outlook.
The US Senate reached a bipartisan budget agreement for the next two years on Wednesday, but House Democrats and Republican conservatives may not vote for it. The US federal government may still fall into a partial lock at 0:00 am on Friday. A rare event that closed twice.
Although the Bank of England's interest rate decision shows that it does not move, this time the Bank of England's position is clearly more hawkish, the key word is "earlier", "more substantial" rate hike. After the announcement of the interest rate decision, the UK 2-year bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 0.68% after the interest rate decision. The GBP/USD moved higher in the short-term and once broke the 1.40 mark, up to 1.4011, up about 130 points before the interest rate decision was announced. There is a slight decline now.
Related market
[ Natural Gas ] The official website of CNPC showed that the largest natural gas producer in China achieved a historic breakthrough in 2017, with a production volume of 103.3 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and exceeded 100 billion cubic meters for the first time, accounting for 70.1% of domestic natural gas production. The 44% of consumption means that PetroChina has achieved initial results in stabilizing oil and gas.
[ Natural Gas ] Morgan Stanley Research reported that China’s domestic natural gas production growth rate can not keep up with consumption growth, which will promote the import dependence rate to 40% this year. By 2024 or 2025, this ratio will rise to 50. %the above.
[ Petroleum ] PetroChina's natural gas business in 2017 achieved a historic breakthrough: the output reached 103.3 billion cubic meters, breaking through 100 billion cubic meters for the first time, accounting for 70.1% of domestic natural gas production and 44% of consumption.
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